If you’re an American living abroad, the most important question isn’t where things stand today; it’s where they’re headed next.

Retirement migration is accelerating, citizenship rules are tightening, and new visa programs are emerging. Here’s what we expect to change next.

One of the most obvious trends is the growing number of Americans choosing to retire abroad.

The reasons aren’t a mystery. Housing, healthcare, insurance, groceries —everything costs more than it did even a few years ago. For many retirees, stretching a pension or 401(k) in the U.S. has become increasingly difficult.

What’s notable is that this isn’t just a trend among the wealthy. Many Americans retiring overseas today could be described as pretty normal. (Think retired teachers, military veterans, and white-collar professionals.) Living abroad helps can help retirees achieve a more comfortable lifestyle, regardless of their income bracket

Countries in South America and parts of Europe are especially popular thanks to retirement or pensionado visas, which are specifically designed for people living off pension or investment income. These programs offer a pathway to legal residency, affordable healthcare, and a much lower cost of living.

Alongside retirement abroad, we’re also seeing continued growth in the number of Americans choosing to renounce U.S. citizenship.

In 2024, an estimated 4,000 Americans formally gave up their citizenship — a dramatic increase from the 200 to 300 per year who renounced 15 or 20 years ago. We believe that number could reach a new record by 2026.

The driving force here is largely tax-related. U.S. tax rates and reporting requirements for Americans abroad remain complex, burdensome, and unlikely to ease in the near future. While several proposals have been floated to ease the tax burden on expats, the political energy around the issue has largely stalled.

Another trend we’re watching closely is the rise of new expat and nomad destinations, particularly in Asia.

Traditional favorites like Thailand remain popular, but we’re seeing growing interest in less-hyped countries such as Vietnam and Nepal. Cities like Da Nang and Kathmandu may still be rough around the edges in terms of infrastructure, but they’re among the most affordable in the world.

In 2025, many European countries tightened citizenship and residency rules. Malta, once the last holdout offering a “golden passport,” has shut that door. Portugal extended its golden visa citizenship timeline from five years to ten. Italy has restricted citizenship by descent, cutting off claims that once extended to great-grandchildren.

To sum up, the era of easy EU backdoors is effectively over.

Even favorable tax regimes are becoming more expensive. Italy’s flat tax on foreign income has already doubled to €200,000, and golden visa investment thresholds are climbing. We expect that trend to continue.

The takeaway? If these programs are on your radar, sooner is almost always better than later.

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